What is actually happening, right now.
Not a forecast. Not a prophecy. A composite reading of seven official hazard feeds, recomputed every fifteen minutes, where every component shows its raw value and links to the agency that published it.
Last computed — · recomputes every 15 minutes
Every component, with its source.
If you disagree with the number, this table is how you check our work. Click any source and you land on the agency's own page for that reading.
| Component | Current reading | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Loading live readings… | ||
Prophecy dates. UAP reports. Folklore.
We track all three. None of them touch the index, and that is a design decision we will defend.
There is no authoritative feed for UAP sightings. Reporting volume tracks media cycles and camera ownership, not anything in the sky. Prophecy dates have a documented success rate of zero across 38 attempts since 1524. Folding either into a hazard number would make it move for reasons that have nothing to do with hazard, and the first person who checked the math would be right to throw the whole thing out.
So they live on the prediction calendar instead, each with its source and an honest label, where you can look at them and decide for yourself. That separation is not us being squeamish. It is the only way the number above means anything.
How the index is built.
| Feed | What it measures | Weight | Publisher |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seismic activity | All M4.5+ events worldwide in the last 24 hours. Scored on peak magnitude, count of M6.0+, and total count. | 16% | USGS Earthquake Hazards Program |
| Extreme weather alerts | Active alerts at Extreme severity across the United States. This is the highest NWS severity class, not a watch. | 16% | NOAA National Weather Service |
| Global disaster alerts | Red and orange multi-hazard alerts worldwide: earthquakes, tropical cyclones, floods, volcanoes, drought. | 18% | GDACS (UN and European Commission) |
| Geomagnetic storm level | Current planetary K-index. Kp 5 is a G1 storm, Kp 9 is G5 and puts transformers and satellites at genuine risk. | 15% | NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center |
| Solar flare activity | Largest GOES X-ray flare class observed. M-class causes brief radio effects; X-class causes blackouts. | 12% | NOAA GOES X-ray Flux |
| Near-Earth approaches | Objects passing within 0.05 AU over the next 60 days, scored on how close the nearest one comes. | 13% | NASA CNEOS Close Approach Data |
| Catalogued impact risks | Objects with a non-zero calculated impact probability, scored on the highest cumulative Palermo value. | 10% | NASA JPL Sentry Risk Table |
The composition rule
Each feed is normalized to 0-100 against a documented range, then combined as a weighted mean. Two adjustments matter:
Renormalization. If a feed is down, its weight is removed rather than counted as zero. A dead sensor should not read as calm.
Floor on the worst component. The final score is the greater of the weighted mean and 62 percent of the single highest component. A Carrington-class solar storm with everything else quiet must not average its way into looking like a normal Tuesday.
Bands: Quiet below 22, Normal 22 to 41, Watch 42 to 61, Elevated 62 to 79, Severe 80 and above.
The index is a reading, not advice. A high number does not mean you should act, and a low number does not mean nothing can happen. Hazards that matter to a specific family are local, and that is what the Family Plan is for.
Monitoring is what Prepared is for.
The index above is public. Prepared watches these same feeds against your specific addresses and tells you when something changes that actually affects your plan.